Ok, I can’t resist any longer. I’m completely confident at this point that Dean will get the Dem nomination, and that Clark will be his running mate:
Yes, Dean is considered a problem by the Clinton wing of the party – but look at what’s happening:
Gore endorsed him, which for all practical purposes cinches the nomination – the votes’ll still be counted, but let’s be realistic: Dean will win. That’s what pisses the other candidates off so much, since they wanted that bump for themselves. So as soon as the endorsement happened, everyone except Clark picked up a flamethrower.
Once the nomination is seen as a foregone conclusion the Clintons will have to shore up their control, which means taking at least one rein from Dean – that’ll be by positioning Clark to be his VP with the promise of full endorsement should he do so.
No? The other choice is who then? Gephardt is a one-trick pony, and Dean already has major union support, with the certainty that they’ll fall in line with a nomination. Edwards is too young and without a strong enough base – even in the south, where he is regarded as over-ambitious in many corners of his constituency. Kerry can’t bring anything, being from the same region as Dean, and for all intents and purposes being a subset of Dean policy-wise. The Kucinich/Sharpton/Braun pack would never happen – too divisive, for starters. Lieberman is done, though he and his supporters don’t know it yet. He’s just not likeable.
That leaves us with Hillary or Clark. Hillary is beginning to waffle a bit on her statements not to be considered, now that (from my perspecitve) Dean has put Clark so far out of the running, leaving her plans in doubt. That means that maybe, maybe, she would be a VP, if it would be a near guarantee of victory, positioning her for 2012 assuming 8 years of Dean (can’t you hear the Neocons shiver). If not, it’s Clark. A southern general who’s been married to the same woman forever. Hmm, ya think?